アブストラクト
| Date | 14:00-15:00 Sep 20, 2024 |
| Speaker | Pietro Gerletti Robert Koch Institute and Free University Berlin Germany |
| Title | SIMPLICITY: an agent-based, multi-scale mathematical model to study SARS-CoV-2 intra- and between-host evolution. |
| Abstract |
Mathematical modelling is increasingly becoming an essential tool for
understanding viral pathogens evolution dynamics. However, there is a
lack of models that capture the complex interplay between within-host
dynamics and population-level transmission processes, in particular for
SARS-CoV-2. We present here SIMPLICITY, an hybrid, multi-scale
mathematical model that combines four models into one: a population
model, an intra-host model of disease progression within individuals, an
evolutionary model, and a phenotypic model that links the genotype to
the relative transmission probability of simulated lineages. We provide
a tool to study the mechanisms driving SARS-CoV-2 evolution and
spreading, which can contribute to more effective public health response
strategies. The model can be adapted to more viruses, by refitting the
corresponding parameters to new data. In short, we present a model that
can be used to study in silico evolution of human pathogenic viruses, to
create synthetic datasets and to benchmark existing phylogenetic pipelines.
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